Awhile back I wrote about the Death of the DBA. After digesting, the Windows Azure PDC announcements it clear that the only thing SQL about SQL data services is the backend managed by Microsoft. In all reality, it is simply an ORM for the cloud(ORM WIKI). Call a spade a spade. A lot of us have had to support databases for ORM based applications. Most of us didn’t like it but at least we had a database to manage. Our cries for real SQL development fell mostly when deaf ears when managers could forgo a SQL developer head count while shipping faster and app devs could stay in the object realm.
From the manager’s perspective
Assuming that Microsoft delivers a high quality, full featured product with the Azure platform, there are a lot of compelling reasons for an IT decision maker to use this platform. No CapEX. No sysadmins. No SQL Dev’s\DBA’s. No patch or backup management. On demand scaling. The early adopters will be startups that where the CEO is also the developer but as some of the companies succeed more established companies will follow.
The false downsides
Security is the big one. This will be solved. In the 90’s, everybody had a server closet or data center. IT folks didn’t want to give it up due to physical security. Today, colo and hosting has become the norm except for the largest environments. It is because a colo\data center companies\hosting providers can provide higher uptime, faster connectivity, greater redundancy for a much lower cost. Nowadays, some companies outsource everything IT from help desk to Exchange admin to the CTO. A good chunk of HP’s growth this quarter was from the division that was previously EDS. The cloud just takes it a step further.
Functionality is coming. This first release might be “SQL 6.5” like but you can bet that MSFT will listen and respond to customer needs. They have gotten much more agile at this. They are throwing a lot of resources at the cloud to make this happen.
3rd party ISV’s will respond. You may manage a SQL system that powers SAP, Siebel, Peoplesoft etc. These company will have to respond to the market. They will release azure versions or their own web based hosted solution. If they don’t, they may get left behind by competitors. Look at how well SalesForce.com is doing.
The real downsides
You have to rewrite your app. I am not a .Net developer so I am not sure how big of deal it would be to port an existing app. I am not sure if many do as new as this stuff is but there will be at least some work effort. If I had to guess, it is considerable.
The biggest downside is the fact that this will be the only game in town for your app once it is written. If you are not happy with the service or prices are raised, you are stuck. How many of you have been unhappy with your web host and moved your web site? *Raises hand* You can’t do that once you are on Azure without a rewrite.
So what does this mean?
I really do not see a career path for a DBA or even a SQL developer to evolve into a role in an Azure based environment unless you want to become a .Net developer. It is pretty cut and dry as far as I see it. However, I do not think that Azure is going to take over the world and be the end of shipping SQL Server on a DVD. There will be SQL 2000 boxes out there 10 years from now because they work and there is no business need to upgrade. Features will exist in on premise SQL Server installations that just can’t happen in the cloud. Big news at PDC was blob support for in SDS. Hello and welcome to Access 97.
There will be hybrid solutions where part of the app is in the cloud while the VLDB is on premise. For example, the product catalog, TodaysOrders and CustomerLogin entities are in the cloud while the Orders, OrdersHistory and Customer databases are local.
Here is Microsoft’s vision:
SQL jobs
If everything works out for Microsoft, there will be less SQL and sysadmin jobs. The question is when and how many? I suspect Azure will RTM with Visual Studio 2010. That should be in about 2011 ;) How quickly are enterprises going to jump on that? The first apps to go will be the ones where the developer\sysadmin is also "the DBA". That won’t effect us and I would venture to guess that would be the typical azure installation for a few years. Providing Azure is a solid platform and given the development cycle, the enterprise may begin to move around 2015. I would say we are good until 2025 just with “legacy SQL” in the worst case scenario. If there are 25% less DBA jobs by 2020, how bad is that going to hurt? I don’t know about you. Hiring and keeping a top notch SR. SQL person is really tough in my part of the country.
The crystal ball
Keep in mind that this is an editorial with a sprinkling of known facts and lots of forward looking guesses. I think SQL Server professional career path is safe for at least the next 10 years. If it is not, the writing will be on the wall in bold ms sans serif with plenty of time to evolve.
posted @ Sunday, November 23, 2008 12:58 PM by Larry Smithmier
posted @ Monday, November 24, 2008 1:36 PM by Michael Swart
posted @ Friday, November 28, 2008 3:59 PM by Log Buffer
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